Today the House voted to permit those with records of serious mental illness to purchase firearms, on 2nd-amendment grounds. What revisions may be expected to projected firearm casualties as a result?

Projected Firearm Casualties in USA, 2017
Projected Firearm Casualties in USA, 2017

The above pie chart shows the top-level statistical projection. We may reasonably expect increases in suicides, homicides, and involuntary manslaughter. Following are the most significant statistics pertinent to firearm homicides from all available data.

Suicides in 2017

The following chart shows trends in suicides and suicide attempts, with and without firearms. Suicide attempts are much more likely to be successful with access to a firearm.
Trends in Suicide Success and Suicide Attempts, 2005~2024
Trends in Suicide Success and Suicide Attempts, 2005~2024

Homicides in 2017

Mass killings have been most likely to be caused by family problems for those with prior history of domestic assault. The following chart shows the expected fatalities for all main categories of cause and kinship in 2017. Mass killings are likely to increase in line with projections, as those with a history of mental illness are most susceptible to terrorist propaganda. The government's ruling to allow purchase of firearms by those with severe mental illness stands in bizarre apposition to the recent attempt to deport legitimate and vetted green-card holders as terrorist threats.

Projected Homicides by Cause and Kinship, 2017
Projected Homicides by Cause and Kinship, 2017

Note, the data indicate family, boyfriends, and girlfriends kill more with guns than anonymous attacks. Prior research has indicated 57% of all mass shootings have included at least one victim known to the aggressor, and the actual percentage of mass shootings triggered by relationships is likely to be greater due to unknown kinships.

Note also, overall for 2017, 7,417 total homicides are projected, but only 444 of them are by stealing strangers—compared to a total of 1,878 by intimates, and 3,706 others known to the victim. According to best available data, Americans will shoot to death 4.7 times more family and partners than will be killed by anonymous thieves in 2017, and the ratio of homicides by family members has been significantly increasing. As this fact continues to be ignored, it is likely to be higher than projected.

Involuntary Manslaughter in 2017

Killing of friends and family due to mistakes from attempted self defense may also be expected to increase more than projected.

Trends in Gun Killings due to Mistakes in Attempted Self Defense, 2005~2024
Trends in Gun Killings due to Mistakes in Attempted Self Defense, 2005~2024

Previously, it was expected that mistakes in attempted self defense would overtake those caused by theft and robbery in 2019. Now it is reasonable to expect mistakes to kill more friends and relatives than are killed from theft and robbery next year.


All these data demonstrably stand in direct apposition to gun-lobby propaganda blaming violent criminals as the only cause of firearm casualties. It is more than reasonable to assert that owning a gun is more than three times more dangerous to the owner than to any criminal, and possibly an order of magnitude more dangerous. Perhaps more significantly to those less concerned about the dead, with about a third of households now owning guns, this equates to a direct taxpayer cost of $407 per gun owner in 2017, which accounts for the extreme efforts of gun lobbyists to divert attention from actual data (see Taxpayer Cost of Gun Violence in 2017: $407 per Gun Owner).

Due to constraints on government spending on firearm casualty research imposed by prior legislature sponsored by gun lobbies, there exists no further validation or denial of the above facts beyond that provided here, and detailed in the document below.

Details and Corroboration

I am a retired student of philosophy from Oxford University. I compiled the above information out of my own interests in the common good. I have no agenda for, sponsorship by, or association with any political or commercial organization either promoting firearms or laws against them. That being said, certain conclusions about the vested interests and bias of those selling and/or lobbying for more rights to use guns in lethal ways are inescapable, and need to be presented as the deceptions they are for the public well being..

Please download the full 9/16 Report, which provides ~3,000 data points, ~20,000 words, and >150 references for verification and corroboration in a formatted 20-page booklet, viewable and printable in Acrobat PDF format.

Download: 9-16 Report: Firearm Casualties and Solutions
9-16 Report: Firearm Casualties and Solutions (Details)
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A special report for the US House and Senate, Release 1.0, September 16, 2016. Sometime close to May 7 next year, half a million Americans wi...