Projected Firearm Casualties in 2017
Research and analysis on gun crime, gun accidents, gun homicide, gun suicide, gun control, self defense, murder, and violence in America.
Sometime close to May 7, 2017, half a million Americans will have been shot to death since 9/11, and there’s no sign of the death rate abating. So it’s a fine time to consider who exactly is dead, who will die next, and what would really make a difference. Does the NRA solution work? Are fatalities falling? Who is killing whom? How well does self defense work? Can gun control reduce fatalities and suicide? Do more guns mean less crime? How many illegal guns are there? How much do taxpayers pay for gun violence? What new solutions could reduce the casualties?
In efforts to increase sales in the last year, NRA has started using the hate-rhetoric techniques developed by Hitler which, in accordance with research on cognitive dissonance, has caused rapid increases in pro-violent peer pressure appearing on social media, inclining and inciting to terrorism. A study of 400 Tea Party members found half of them already ready to shoot children merely for stealing apples off an apple tree in the back yard. Intense social pressure to support killing and violence creates a ripe picking ground for those seeking to recruit or persuade malcontents to terrorism.
In 1995, firearm homicides were falling dramatically. But in 1999, the direction reversed, and killings started increasing...until about 2005, when they started falling again. Best-fit curve algorithms show the direction could go either way. Is the overall trend down or up? Are there trends in components of overall firearm fatalities that illuminate the answer? What lessons can we learn from the trends for ourselves?
New findings are presented showing that a gun in the home increases risks of residents being shot to death by 3~4 orders of magnitude more than it is likely to stop a crime. Also, during attempts of self defense, 2 out of 3 firearm fatalities are accidental killings of family or friends, rather than of criminal aggressors. Additional data on domestic violence is presented.
Natural law provides very clear answers on the gun rights versus gun control debate. But natural law, as it is invoked in USA's declaration of independence, requires accepting the existence of God, so natural law cannot be taught in American public schools. As a result, 99.9% of Americans on both 'sides' of the gun debate have opinions of the derived constitution that are very flawed. Here is a primer on natural law, and how it applies to gun liberties.
NRA's Wayne LaPierre blames violent crime for most gun deaths, and demands incarceration of all felons for 5 years as the solution. In fact, with current CDC and FBI data, less than 1 in 15 deaths are caused by crime. Even ignoring that fact, this study finds the NRA solution would at most save 1 in 9 lives, and at worst, would actually increase total fatality, due to a nine-fold increase in suicide likelihood by those with an incarceration history. This study also finds that NRA propaganda to blame firearm fatalities on acts of crime alone has been very effective in distorting the ability of gun supporters to accept the truth.
Pro-gun advocates claim that guns do not cause suicide and that therefore gun-control legislation cannot reduce suicide rates, producing suicide statistics from other nations which have reduced or banned guns to prove the claim. Here the scientific data and claims are examined. It finds that an effective way to save American lives is to enable secure delivery of confidential data from health organizations to the firearms-purchase background-check system, although this may not be enough considering the number of guns already in the country.
The American public thinks it has well-formed opinions on moral, ethical, legal, social, and religious issues, despite there being a general lack of formal education as to how to form such higher-level semantic judgments in the public school system. This study demonstrates that the need to conform to peer attitudes will cause the public to ignore facts, dismiss evidence, and believe in rumors in order to substantiate their view. The majority of Americans will not change their views, after they are formed, even when presented with direct facts to the contrary.